Saturday, February 24, 2024

Is USA Really Going to Withdraw Troops from Afghanistan?

Is USA really going to withdraw troops from Afghanistan OR is it another gimmick?

As we enter the third quarter of 2021 the emergence of new global superpowers, in particular China, its contribution and influence increases to the global economy. We see a shift from the US to China that was the only superpower that existed since the USSR collapsed at the end of twentieth century. The polarization began in the first decade of the twenty -first century and once the dependency of foreign trade shifted towards China, almost all big economies of the world have started shifting to their own economic interest based on their economy size, influence, dependency of trade, geo political location and not mere military size and power.

China became a global production hub for almost all of the countries of the world including countries belonging to the EU, Japan, US, UK. As the economy of China grew, they not only focused on production driven society but they also started investing in human capital, research and high-tech technology for acquiring latest technologies as the technology was not up to mark that was required to become the world super power.

As China saw a financial boom it had two objectives: elevating the lives of its people and making China’s defense even stronger than all rivals.

US has always used the sanctions tactic on other countries who do not go with the interest of US or taking advantage of its mere gigantic military power and large fleet of aircraft carriers USS Ronald Reagan, USS Theodore Roosevelt and USS Nimitz carrier that are moving around in South China Sea and Western Pacific Ocean.

It was not enough to take China down as the last hope of bullying China was not taken seriously by the China and all its coalition partners giving a clear message to stay away or get ready for any surprise and China’s warning was indeed taken seriously by the US and coming back to home was the only way to save the hard-earned respect over the years to become a superpower. The humiliation of a superpower gives a clear message there is a new superpower in the world and the victory will go towards China.

The rational and the only solution was to save the US stature and stop interfering in China’s internal matters and let China progress in its region. China has already made huge investments for the belt and road initiative that will give China saving up to 8% in its logistics cost to the total global exports.

The Belt and Road Initiative will reduce shipment times for BRI economies up to 4% and for China-Central Asia-West Asia economic corridor it will further decline by 12%. The BRI transport infrastructure projects will also reduce trade costs for the BRI economies up to 2.8% on average with the rest of the world and 3.5% with other BRI economies.

The China has always invested in neighboring countries and cooperated with them making them part of value chain. China with its neighboring countries behaves like an elder brother, safeguarding the interest of its neighbors and due to this reason, many of its neighboring countries all ASEAN countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, including Vietnam, North Korea, Burma and Central Asian Countries now joining the league like Pakistan, Tajikistan, Iran and Turkey.

The rest of the west world are US allies like EU countries, Australia, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia and some Middle East Countries including India on the other side.

All Middle East countries, South Korea, Malaysia and India are also well aware of the fact that crises created by US forces being deployed in Afghanistan, Iraq and Saudi Arabia but now any more instability will benefit only US and will ruin economies of all the countries surrounding China, Russia and India in particular. Therefore, the message has been conveyed to US to stay away and let China complete all its projects in this region who ever will interfere will have adverse effects on its economy and will stand out to be a watch man not among the beneficiaries of the BRI.

For this region US cannot pursue its long-term strategy staying in Afghanistan and pushing India to fight on its behalf knowingly they won’t be benefited to go against China. Ultimately India may lose more and cannot start a two-front war for sustaining US falling economy at the price of its own. Soon this region will be progressing in few years from now and the US or EU influence will be minimal to the cumulative global economy.

The US is trying its level best to use all negative tactics by which it can manipulate its personal interest and agenda. Huawei is banned in US and the contract with Google was cancelled not long time ago just because Huawei was going to become top seller in next quarter for International mobile market with 36% quarterly growth rate surpassing all competitors. If the ban was not imposed Huawei was at the fringe of becoming number one seller in the world surpassing Samsung in May 2019.The US also threatens other Chinese companies like Xiaomi just because Xiaomi is gaining its share in international mobile market. In 2016 Huawei desired it will become the world’s largest smartphone manufacturer in next five in 2018, it took second place even ahead of Apple and just behind Samsung.

The reason for banning Huawei was making it handicapped not able to gain its market share and not let China cross the other Tech giants. This was only possible by putting ban on selling in the United States as its the world’s third-largest mobile market and not allowing any US based company collaborate with Huawei like Google creating a bigger problem for them.

It’s a trade war and it’s how the US will avenge any nation that is about to surpass the US economy by using all unfair means. Using the media as a propaganda machine to undermine China, making China a rogue country changing perception of China labeling it expansionist. Isolating China in its region and in the rest of the world. The countries which will not side with the US policies will straight away face sanctions, trade restrictions, and no more assistance in any way or some time may be invaded for not taking US threats seriously.

But unfortunately, China took all US pressure and was able to influence all countries in its neighborhood and the collective call is given to the US to stay away or get ready to face the outcome.

The US came like a gangster in the region but when they saw the other side having weapons and ready to fight back and no one in the region would side with the US it was better to save your own pride and go back home. The reason is clear no gain for US it’s not Taliban a small force or middle east country without army. Its new super power China with Russia and all its allies like Pakistan, Turkey and all its silent allies the message is given to US no country from this region will back US for war although many of the countries cannot speak against US but have told US to leave the region without damaging this region’s mutual interest.

India is also on the backfoot as it indicated after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. India has taken a defensive position against China against the offensive stance that was taken in the first few weeks of the Ladakh Standoff. The US wants India to fight with China and not taking a risk for its forces to be part of the conflict is a clear message that the US knows it’s not possible to afford war as its own economy is at decline due to pandemic and price of war is too high and its economy cannot afford a war.

The deal has been made between the US and China for which Russia and all Middle East countries surged as mediators to force the US to back off and leave the region. The deal also includes collaborating with the US in all division removal of all bans imposed by US to China trade as China will invest and will also see the US interest as well as the war is no solution. The economic prosperity will be achieved by collaborating and becoming economic partners to serve mutual interest.

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Category: Politics

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